[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 15 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 2N1W 1N8W 3N22W 5N37W 4N41W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN
56W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND PART OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS FLORIDA...THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST EAST OF
GEORGIA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH 32N75W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA TO AN 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE HONDURAS
COAST. THE FRONT CURVES THROUGH HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...INTO
GUATEMALA. STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM GUATEMALA TO THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...STOPS AND THEN RESUMES FROM
17N96W TO 20N98W AND 23N99W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO
THE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES
EAST COAST SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA TO AN 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE HONDURAS COAST.
THE FRONT CURVES THROUGH HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...INTO
GUATEMALA. STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM GUATEMALA TO THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...STOPS AND THEN RESUMES FROM
17N96W TO 20N98W AND 23N99W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N62W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN AT LEAST 100 TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH 32N75W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA TO AN 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE HONDURAS
COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE VICINITY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS NEAR 23N63W. CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES THROUGH 32N24N TO 28N30W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N19W TO 30N23W.
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N23W TO 26N30W AND 25N37W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE FROM 30N29W TO THE 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 35N49W TO 32N61W 29N68W AND 27N72W. UPPER LEVEL WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE 23N63W CYCLONIC CENTER.

$$
MT


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