[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 14 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N0 1N14W 3.5N24W 3.5N33W 2N43W
4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION UP TO 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
WITHIN 200 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG A LINE FROM SRN FRENCH GUIANA TO
NRN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN
GEORGIA SWD NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA...THEN SWWD TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE
TROF HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHICH AS OF 2100 UTC EXTENDED FROM E OF FLORIDA NEAR
30N78W TO A 1017 MB LOW OVER FLORIDA BAY THEN SW ACROSS CUBA TO
19N84W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED ACROSS
FLORIDA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH
STRATIFORM RAIN EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM TO THE W OVER S/CNTRL
FLORIDA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LAGGING THE SQUALL LINE BY
UP TO 200 NM AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
E GULF. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL AND FT.
MYERS TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 24N85W THEN SWD JUST OFF THE YUCATAN
COAST OF MEXICO AND BELIZE. SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS COVER
MUCH OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
W OF THE UPPER TROF PRODUCES A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE 850 MB
LEVEL OVER THE CNTRL GULF SLOPING DOWN TO 950 MB OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM HAVANA
CUBA TO 19N84W...W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM N COLOMBIA NWD TO
THE BAHAMAS BUT NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE HAS ALSO
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WHICH HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. FARTHER E...NW/W UPPER
FLOW WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE ELY TRADES BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG TSTMS HAVE MOVED OVER THE GULF STREAM IN THE W ATLC
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WHICH IS BEING FED BY STRONG AND
MOIST SELY FLOW COMING IN FROM E OF THE BAHAMAS. AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THESE STORMS FROM THE SRN
BAHAMAS TO NEAR 32N66W WITH CONFLUENT FLOW PRODUCING AN AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE UP TO 180 NM NE OF THE BAHAMAS. A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 26N55W AS IT PINCHES OFF FROM A SHEARED TROF TO ITS NE AND
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN
46W-58W ALONG THE STRONG ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A STRONG 1038 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS. FARTHER S WHERE THE
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE WEAKER...A SFC TROF IS ORIENTED FROM THE
COAST OF SURINAME TO NEAR BARBADOS AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 50W-60W. OVER THE E
ATLC...A SHARP UPPER TROF IS FLATTENING OUT ALONG 32N26W 27N45W
AND HAS SUPPORTED A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 32N22W 26N34W WITH A
75 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS. THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL E OF 40W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE
ITCZ TOWARDS THE CAPE VERDES AND AFRICA BUT THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A DEEP LAYERED LOW
DROPS DOWN FROM THE N AND SETS UP NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SUN
THROUGH TUE. THIS FEATURE MAY TAP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
S AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MOROCCO
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF NEXT WEEK.

$$
BERG


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