[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 14 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 4N27W 1N40W 2N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
3N16W 5N31W 1N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES INTO THE W GULF W OF 81W MOVING EASTWARD AND HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES THE W ATLC. STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE GULF FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N83W SSW ALONG 25N87W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 20N90W
TO NEAR 17N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SIDE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS COUPLED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W ACROSS FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N82W.

CARIBBEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TILTED BACKWARDS FROM NW
VENEZUELA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TOWARDS E CUBA. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG S TO SW WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND WEAKER
NE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
FLOW IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT EMERGING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARDS
JAMAICA AND IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER
DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC CONSISTS
OF A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N70W
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE TO BEYOND 32N68W.
THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY STABLE AIR OVER THE
W ATLC W OF 60W WHICH IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE AS THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES INTO THE
W ATLC. VERY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC N OF 20N W OF 60W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N WITH THE
A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N49W. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N26W TO JUST INTO THE REGION NEAR 29N31W. WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DOT THE AREA. BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N
AND PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM
10N-18N WHICH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

$$
WALLACE



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