[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 14 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N10W 3N22W 1N36W 4N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 4N FROM 22W-26W.
CLUSTERS  OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 26W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES INTO THE W GULF W OF 83W MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND IS
APPROACHING THE W ATLC. STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S ALONG 27N88W 23N92W INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE E
SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA S TO THE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COUPLED WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/
LIFT ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 21N87W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR
31N84W.

CARIBBEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TILTED BACKWARDS FROM NW
VENEZUELA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TOWARDS W CUBA. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG S TO SW WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND WEAKER
NE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INTO LESSER ANTILLES. THE FLOW
IS SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT EMERGING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARDS
JAMAICA AND IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC CONSISTS
OF A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N70W
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DUE N. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY STABLE AIR OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 60W WHICH WILL CHANGE AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES INTO THE W ATLC.
VERY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC N OF 20N W OF 60W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N WITH THE A STRONG
1037 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 36M49W. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF THE REGION. WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE ABSENCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE REGION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DOT THE AREA. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N AND PRODUCING
ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

$$
WALLACE


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