[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 08 JAN 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 3N25W 5N40W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN
25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE EAST HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS SE ALABAMA NEAR 32N86W ACROSS W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N90W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT SW ALONG 25N95W THEN S TO INLAND OVER E MEXICO NEAR 21N98W
THEN ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 29N TO INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 95W S OF 21N
TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO WHICH IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DRAWING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
SE STATES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLATTEN OUT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEAVING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

SE GULF INTO W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN P[PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W NE ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC ALONG
26N78W TO BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE
E US COAST INTO THE W ATLC WITH HIGHER WINDS N OF THE REGION.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT LOSES AMPLITUDE.

W CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N64W SW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
S BELIZE. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS
COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N-25N BETWEEN 70W-90W THUS LIMITING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 80W. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE UPPER LOW N HISPANIOLA
BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N E
OF 70W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR
8N28W. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FLOW. THIS FLOW AND THE JETSTREAM ARE
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITHIN 300/350 NM
OF LINE FROM COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W NE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 15N59W TO 16N43W THEN SPREADING EASTWARD TO OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED INLAND
OVER AFRICA ALONG THE MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA BORDER NEAR 28N10W
WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N40W
WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO 22N64W. THIS IS FUNNELING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NE ATLC N OF 25N
FROM 13W-30W THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW
INLAND OVER MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE
REGION BUT MAINTAIN THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

$$
WALLACE


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