[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 28 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1.5N18W 1.5N34W EQ40W 2S45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN
31W-36W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
11W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC...
POWERFUL NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO WHIP UP THE U.S. EAST COAST A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF VIRGINIA AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 31N72W SW TO NEAR BIMINI ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS STATIONARY THRU THE FLORIDA STRAITS...NW CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN THEN ALONG THE MTN RIDGES OF GUATEMALA AND S
MEXICO.  LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRES NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER GUATEMALA NW THRU S MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM THE NW
CUBA TO THE FL STRAITS MOVING NE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. LOW CLOUDS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS ELSEWHERE UP TO 250 NM E OF
THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WITH LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT FROM
THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER. A
COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FIRST BEING A SFC TROF WHICH EXTENDS
ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR FT MYERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ABOUT 200 NM NW OF THE SYSTEM.  EARLIER LOW OFFSHORE OF TEXAS
HAS DISSIPATED. THE TROF IS USHERING A BIT COOLER AIR AND ENDING
THE RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER TROF ALONG 90W
PROVIDING THE UPPER SUPPORT AND AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SPREADS
UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER HERE EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA SW TO SRN BELIZE.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY
FROM COZUMEL NEWD BUT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING MAINTAINED
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN...BELIZE...AND N GUATEMALA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA WITH BROAD AXIS
FROM NW COLOMBIA THRU PUERTO RICO WITH A CONTINUATION OF VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT.  A WEAK LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE E AND IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY OVER THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WATERS ALONG 31N36W
24N50W THEN AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT TO 26N60W. NO CONVECTION
AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT HAS LEFT THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROF
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 31N25W
16N30W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CLOUD BAND
WHICH EXTENDS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
CANARY ISLANS TO JUST NW OF THE CAPE VERDES WITH ANY SUBTROPICAL
HIGH DISPLACED TO THE SW ... 1021 MB NEAR 23N46W.  TYPICAL NE
FLOW ALONG NW AFRICA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH NNW FLOW AS SURFACE
RIDGING IS WEAK. THE TROPICS ARE DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT
EXTENDING S OF 20N. ITCZ CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH A LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT FUELING TSTMS NEAR EQ35W.

$$
BLAKE


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