[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 28 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N0 4N10W 3N20W 1N30W 2N43W 1S54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF W GHANA...THE IVORY
COAST...E LIBERIA...AND SE GUINEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-50W...
BECOMING SCATTERED MODERATE W OF 50W NEAR THE BRAZIL/FRENCH
GUIANA BORDER.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC...
A COASTAL NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE U.S. EAST COAST
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N75W SW TO S FL THEN PAST THE
W TIP OF CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT HAS HUNG UP ALONG
THE MTN RIDGES OF GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO...AND REMAINS STUCK
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
EXTENDING ALONG COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PRIMARY FRONT FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE FL STRAITS MOVING
IN A NELY DIRECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOW CLOUDS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS ELSEWHERE UP TO 250 NM E OF THE FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BUT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE ENERGY IS BEING
DRAWN NWD WITH THE MAIN NOR'EASTER CIRCULATION. A COUPLE OF
OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE FIRST BEING A SFC TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FL SWD TO 26N86W AND IS PRODUCING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEW ORLEANS. SECOND...A
QUICK-MOVING LOW HAS EJECTED OFF THE TX COAST NEAR 27N95W WITH A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE W ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OFF THE TX COAST...THIS FEATURE
IS PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. EACH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AS A SPEEDY 130 KT JET ROARS
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF WITHIN AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
PATTERN.

CARIBBEAN...
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE U.S. COASTAL NOR'EASTER HAS MOVED
OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA SW
TO THE GUATEMALA/BELIZE BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY FROM COZUMEL NEWD BUT
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING MAINTAINED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE YUCATAN...BELIZE...AND N GUATEMALA. SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE AREA CENTERED ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF
HISPANIOLA...AND THIS HAS FOSTERED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT
SE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS. A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM THE E AND IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WATERS ALONG 32N39W
24N50W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N60W AND A DISSIPATING
WARM FRONT FARTHER W OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
HAS ESSENTIALLY OUT-PACED THE FRONT WITH THE TROF EXTENDING
ALONG A LINE 32N34W 26N31W 18N33W...AT LEAST 600 NM E OF THE
FRONT. THIS SETUP HAS CAUSED THE FRONT TO BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CLOUD BAND WHICH EXTENDS
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROF IS ENTERING AN AREA ALREADY OCCUPIED BY A STRONGER TROF
WHICH EXTENDS W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. THIS TROF IS
SUPPORTING A DEEP-LAYERED LOW OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO WITH A
WEAKENING SFC TROF EXTENDING ALONG THE MOROCCO/ALGERIA BORDER SW
TO 26N20W...OR S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE TROPICS ARE
DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING S OF 20N. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT...PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONSISTING OF CONVERGENCE ABOUT 500/550 NM N OF THE
BRAZILIAN COAST.

$$
BERG


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