[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 28 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
27W-42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
2N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 30W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO MOVE UP ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US WITH
A DEEPENING 992 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
NEAR 32N29W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 97W. A STRONG JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 130 KT
EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO BEYOND
32N81W. THE DRY SLOT IS NOW OVER THE W ATLC N OF THE REGION BUT
IS STILL CAUSING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC W OF 45W
TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WITH THE AXIS NOW ALONG 66W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 30N73W TO 26N66W WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTION WELL N OF THE REGION. AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE N OF 27N FROM 68W-80W MOVING RAPIDLY NE. GALE FORCE SURFACE
WINDS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 70W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH
ACROSS THE PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS TO 27N83W THEN S AGAIN
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO INLAND OVER THE PENINSULA NEAR
BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN OVER THE W GULF AND WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DROPPING ACROSS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N50W IS PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
AND TROPICAL ATLC...THUS ZONAL WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY TWO AREAS OF NOTICEABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF DOMINICA FROM 60W-66W WHICH
CONSISTS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 19N87W TO OVER
FAR W CUBA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 29N45W-26N53W THEN STATIONARY ALONG 24N61W TO THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER NEAR 26N66W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 28N FROM 34W-41W. A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE
COLD FRONT NEAR 24N46W. A SECOND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH S
OF BERMUDA ALONG 31W/32N W OF 60W REMAINING STATIONARY W OF 66W
TO JUST N OF THE NOR'EASTER. BROAD LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC N OF 13N E OF 45W WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N13W SW OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO
15N28W. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ARE ROTATING AROUND A MEAN LOW
NEAR 36N12W. A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO
NEAR 34N11W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 25N28W. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS IS MOSTLY
WESTERLY DUE TO A MID/UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SSE TO 5N20W.
THE LACK OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE HAS KEPT THE ITCZ
RATHER FAR TO THE S WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net