[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON 28 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N17W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
26W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF
THE AXIS E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
A NOR'EASTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WITH A
DEEPENING 995 MB LOW LOCATED JUST E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR
30.5N81W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A STRONG
JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 KT EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF
NEAR 25N90W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BEYOND 32N81W. A DRY
SLOT IS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF ACROSS S GEORGIA INTO SE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND IS CAUSING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC W
OF 45W TO AMPLIFY WITH THE AXIS 68W. A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 30N75W TO 26N69W AND
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDING GENERALLY N OF 29N FROM 72W-77W MOVING
RAPIDLY NE. GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT W
OF 70W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO ALONG 24N86W TO 17N93W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN
OVER THE W GULF AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS
THE N GULF DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE GULF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLIES IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. ONLY TWO AREAS OF NOTICEABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD/S LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF GUADALOUPE FROM 60W-63W
WHICH CONSISTS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 19N96W TO OVER W CUBA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 26N53W-24N62W THEN NW TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NOR'EASTER NEAR 26N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N.
BROAD 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ATLC E OF
THE COLD FRONT NEAR 26N44W. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
S OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N W OF 60W REMAINING STATIONARY W OF 68W TO
JUST N OF THE NOR'EASTER. BROAD LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC N OF 12N E OF 45W WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A COMPLEX DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOWS...ONE MOVING
NE OVER THE STRAITS OF GIBRALTAR AND A SECOND E OF MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W CONTINUING SSW OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO
13N31W. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF
GIBRALTAR SW TO A 996 MB LOW CENTERED E OF MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
34N13W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24N22W. DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
UPPER LOWS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM BEYOND 32N22W ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA AND MOROCCO THUS
LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75
NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 29N. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
TROPICS IS MOSTLY WESTERLY WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SSE FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LACK OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE HAS KEPT THE ITCZ RATHER FAR TO THE S WITH NO LARGE
AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
WALLACE


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