[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 27 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W EQ25W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN EQ8W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4S-EQ BETWEEN
45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NOR'EASTER IS ORGANIZING OVER N FLORIDA WITH A DEEPENING 996
MB LOW LOCATED NEAR CROSS CITY FLORIDA AT 30N83W AS OF 2100 UTC.
THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N85W.  A STRONG 130 KT JET
STREAK AT 250 MB EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO TO N FLORIDA.  A DRY
SLOT IS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF AND IS CAUSING THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE JUST E OF FLORIDA TO AMPLIFY OVER THE W ATLANTIC.  A
WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA APPROACHING THE GEORGIA BORDER AND A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS GENERALLY N OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND S MEXICO ALONG 20N89W 17N96W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES ALONG THE THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG 21N99W 25N101W.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BEGIN OVER THE W GULF LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND RIDES UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. SFC
RIDGING WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE W GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLIES IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS PATTERN IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE ONLY NOTICEABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALIGNED
ALONG A BAND MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF GUADALOUPE
FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 59W-62W.   SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING MON NIGHT/TUE
ALONG A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WARM FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N80W 26N70W.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
IS LINGERING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS GENERALLY FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 75W-80W.  A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 25N60W 32N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTEND UP TO 100 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE STRONG LOW PRES AREA NOW OVER N FLORIDA WILL SHIFT NE TO THE
W ATLC COASTAL WATERS JUST E OF JACKSONVILLE FL BY THIS EVENING
WITH GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY N OF 30N W OF 70W AND A LARGE RAIN
SHIELD SPREADING FROM W TO E.  BROAD 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS
CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WATERS NEAR 24N44W.  PREDOMINANTLY
UNIFORM W/NW FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S TO 10N IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. SLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OF S AMERICA IS
CONVERGING WITH THE NW FLOW TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

EAST ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST W OF
MADEIRA ISLANDS...996 MB NEAR 33N15W AND 998 MB NEAR
34N11W...WITH SEVERAL SFC TROFS EXTENDING SW TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS.  ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHARP
MID/UPPER TROF CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG 20W SWD TO 20N. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS IS MOSTLY WESTERLY WITH MILD
TROUGHING LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LACK OF UPPER
AIR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE HAS KEPT THE ITCZ RATHER FAR TO THE S
WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


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