[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 27 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

 ...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 2N20W...EQUATOR AT 30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 8W AND 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 5N11W 3N20W 2N32W 2N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N52W TO 29N60W 25N70W 25N75W. WARM FRONT
25N75W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO AN 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N92W.
COLD FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W AND
19N99W. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF
INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 19N99W TO 22N100W TO 30N107W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH RUN FROM
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW RUNS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO...
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...TO MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...
GEORGIA...AND FLORIDA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE EVERYWHERE IN
THIS AREA. AREAS OF SHOWERS ALSO ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOR EXAMPLE...ARE
FOUND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...WEST OF FLORIDA
MOVING EASTWARD. OTHER SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
THROUGH 34N52W TO 28N50W...HAVING SHOT EASTWARD QUITE QUICKLY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 22N65W 26N56W 30N50W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE REST OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 40W AND THE 34N52W 28N50W TROUGH. EXPECT...THE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THAT AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY DRY AIR ACROSS
THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 73W.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA IN LINES OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN THE
27/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA...IS EASTERLY...
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE GULF OF
MEXICO SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N47W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN 34W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 34N44W TO 25N50W SIX HOURS
AGO NOW IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND
THE FAST-MOVING 34N52W 28N50W TROUGH TO THE WEST. DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W. ONE CENTER ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 32N20W...ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 37N9W.
A BROAD TROUGH RUNS FROM THESE CYCLONIC CENTERS TO 27N28W AND
14N38W. SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...ACROSS THE
EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N20W AND 21N31W. TROUGH FROM
A 993 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 34N21W TO 29N20W 26N24W AND 26N31W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOSTLY NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 14W
AND 22W...AND SOME NEAR THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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