[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 27 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC.

 ...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N10W 2N20W...EQUATOR AT 30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W...AND FROM 1N TO 4S BETWEEN
31W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N54W TO 30N60W 26N70W 25N74W. STATIONARY
FRONT 25N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. WARM FRONT 26N90W
TO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
25N95W. COLD FRONT FROM LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
19N95W AND 19N98W. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES UP AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 19N97W TO 23N100W TO 30N107W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH
ARE MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD OKLAHOMA...RUNNING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 27N103W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW RUNS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO...ACROSS THE
OPEN GULF WATERS...TO MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND
FLORIDA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE EVERYWHERE IN THIS AREA. AREAS
OF SHOWERS ALSO ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THROUGH 33N59W
TO 24N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N65W 26N60W
29N56W BEYOND 32N54W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
THE REST OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
40W AND THE 33N59W 24N65W TROUGH. EXPECT...THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.
IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THAT AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY DRY AIR ACROSS
THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA IN LINES OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN THE
27/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA...IS EASTERLY...
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE GULF OF
MEXICO SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N47W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN 34W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 34N44W TO 25N50W. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W. ONE
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 33N27W...ANOTHER ONE IS
NEAR 34N25W. ANOTHER CENTER...NOW WEAKER...NEAR 36N15W. A BROAD
TROUGH RUNS FROM THESE CYCLONIC CENTERS TO 27N31W AND 13N38W.
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 25N21W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N22W TO 27N27W TO 23N34W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
30N TO 34N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W.

$$
MT


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