[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 26 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

 ...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W EQ22W 1S35W 1N50W.  NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E
OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 39W-41W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
26N70W TO TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N83W AND EXTENDS W TO A
1009 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W FROM THIS LOW TO ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 24N95W THEN GOES S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W.  THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG 22N100W 27N102W 30N107W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO...FLORIDA ...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
90W-70W.  A PLUME OF OVERCAST PACIFIC MOISTURE COVERS CENTRAL
MEXICO...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA...AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 19N104W 26N90W
33N76W.  AN EMBEDDED 120-130 KT JETSTREAM TRAVERSES MEXICO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG 22N105W
30N90W 32N80W.  FURTHER W...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N100W MOVING E. EXPECT...
THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND ACROSS N
FLORIDA SUN AND INTO THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF/FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. IN
FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADES ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS PRODUCING
WESTERLY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ALL SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA SUN.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W TO
26N70W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N50W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 25N30W 24N35W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 32N16W 27N20W 20N30W.   SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN N OF 30N BETWEEN 15W-30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-60W.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-40W.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.  A BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AT LEAST
250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N40W 20N26W 23N17W.

$$
FORMOSA


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