[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT 26 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

 ...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W...THE EQUATOR AT 17W...
3S25W 3S36W...EQUATOR AT 45W TO 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. TWO
LINES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED ALONG AND N
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ. ONE IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
2S38.5W 1S45W. THE SECOND IS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR WITHIN 30 NM
OF LINE FROM 2N44W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2.5N51W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E
OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 28.5N72W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO 23N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT TO A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
23N97W. THE FRONT CONTINUES UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF
INTERIOR MEXICO.  LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W. THE WESTERN GULF LOW/FRONT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM WEAK BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SEEN OVER THE GULF. BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND BROAD RIDGING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF N AND W OF
THE LOW/FRONT. BROKEN/OVER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE N OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COAST
EXTENDS SW INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE W ATLC. THE TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NE OUT OF THE AREA.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
MOVE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND ACROSS N FLORIDA SUN
AND INTO THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF/FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADES ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO BRING THE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE
AREA. GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
W CUBA SUN.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 21N70W. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.
A BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AT LEAST 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF LINE 17N40W 20N26W 23N17W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...
MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS...EXTENDS ALONG 30N19W 24N25W
TO 21N39W. A COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG
30N20W TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN N OF
30N BETWEEN 15W-30W.

$$
BROWN


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