[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT 26 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

 ...ITCZ...

ITCZ 4N10W...THE EQUATOR AT 18W...2S26W 1S36W 3S43W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1S TO 4S BETWEEN 22W AND 36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 6N10W 2N25W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 28N78W...TO FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
ACROSS FLORIDA TO AN 1013 MB GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER NEAR
26N84W...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N97W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 21N97W
TO 22N100W TO 29N106W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ORGANIZING ITSELF BETTER OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR
MEXICO. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM A BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN
STRETCH FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE GULF WEST OF 90W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN IN GENERAL AREA
NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE SEEN IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS IS WESTERLY... BECOMING
ANTICYCLONIC AFTER CROSSING OVER FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND CONTINUING AS FAR EAST AS 40W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS 32N70W...AWAY FROM THE 28N78W
SURFACE LOW CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. THE WEATHER
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND AND A
SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY BECOMING A STRONG COASTAL STORM FARTHER UP
THE COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...WITH THE REMNANTS OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FROM YESTERDAY...FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN THE 26/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA...IS EASTERLY...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
THE FLORIDA COAST. SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N53W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 40W.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.
A BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AT LEAST 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 18N40W 22N18W 24N11W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N20W 24N30W
21N40W. A COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THIS TROUGH...THROUGH 32N22W
26N30W 25N35W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF
28N23W...AND NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 14W AND 30W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net