[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT 26 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 4N10W...THE EQUATOR AT 18W...2S26W 1S36W 3S43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 6N10W 4N15W 1N24W BETWEEN 10W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2S TO 3S BETWEEN 24W AND
31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 43W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 29N79W...TO FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ACROSS
FLORIDA TO A GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W...TO JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 20N95W TO 23N100W TO
29N107W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
RAIN NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE SEEN IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST
SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS IS WESTERLY...
BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AFTER CROSSING OVER FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND CONTINUING AS FAR EAST AS 40W.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE AREA OF THE 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N79W IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE WEATHER ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND AND A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY
BECOMING A STRONG COASTAL STORM FARTHER UP THE COAST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...WITH THE REMNANTS OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FROM YESTERDAY...FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW...AS SEEN IN THE 26/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA...IS EASTERLY...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
THE FLORIDA COAST. SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
26N53W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 40W.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.
A BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AT LEAST 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 19N40W 20N26W 25N11W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N22W 25N30W
22N38W. A COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THIS TROUGH...THROUGH 32N24W
28N30W 27N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF
28N23W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

$$
MT


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