[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 25 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
20W-29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4S38W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF 4N FROM 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 31N80W ACROSS APALACHEE BAY TO A 1012 MB LOW W OF
FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SW TO A SECOND
LOW NEAR 25N87W THEN W AND INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG 20N94W AND
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF N OF 23N E OF 87W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAKING ACROSS THE AREA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...LONGWAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
66W/67W HAS WEAKENED BUT IS STILL GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS MOVING WITH THE TRADES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-73W. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS S OF 14N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLAND TO E OF THE ABC
ISLANDS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD/FLAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC...
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1022 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 28N56W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH
TO TO 21N22W THEN CONTINUES E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
22N17W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N28W
EXTENDING SW TO 27N34W WHERE IT DISSIPATES NEAR 25N44W. A SECOND
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING
SW ALONG 30N44W. THE EASTERN MOST FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 29N FROM 22W-28W. THE SECOND FRONT IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 30N FROM 28W-35W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W HALF
OF THE ATLC W OF 40W PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRY AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING
CLOUDS/CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE E ATLC HAS A MID/UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH N OF 22N E OF 40W WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG 33W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN MOST COLD
FRONT...AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW INLAND OVER MOROCCO WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST NEAR 34N4W.
FARTHER S...STRONG ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EQUATOR.

$$
CZARNIECKI


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