[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI 25 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N10W 3N15W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 20W-29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 43W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR E OF 4W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF 4N FROM 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 31N80W ACROSS APALACHEE BAY TO A 1010 MB LOW S OF
ALABAMA NEAR 28N87W CONTINUING SW ALONG 23N92W THEN W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98W AND CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF N OF 24N E
OF 88W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF...
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAKING ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LONGWAVE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
67W/68W IS GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WITH
THE TRADES ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ANOTHER AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS S OF 14N FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLAND TO E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD/FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN
ALOFT CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC...
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 29N53W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC
EXTENDING E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC HAS BEGUN TO ERODE
THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED 20N30W AND
THE AXIS CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N17W. THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N29W EXTENDING SW TO
27N37W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N51W. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N48W
THEN NW TO 30N52W BECOMING STATIONARY OUT OF THE REGION NEAR
32N58W. THE EASTERN MOST FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
29N FROM 26W-30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE W HALF OF THE ATLC W OF 40W PRODUCING ALMOST
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRY AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING CLOUDS/CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE E
ATLC HAS A MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH N OF 20N E OF 40W WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 27W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN MOST COLD FRONT...AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW INLAND OVER
MOROCCO WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST
NEAR 33N9W. FARTHER S...STRONG ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE
EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE




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