[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 21 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 4N18W 2N25W 2N42W TO A 1006
MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE EQUATOR E
OF 4W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
4W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLC AND GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N69W.
BROAD SE/S RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING
MODERATE TEMPERATURES. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N FROM 84W-93W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE ALONG 78W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
THE AREA. BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH A 110-130 KT EMBEDDED
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO E LOUISIANA. THE SW GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BUILD S
INCREASING THE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE CONDITIONS
BEING OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS TRINIDAD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND THUS LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO LOW LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR GUADELOUPE TO 15N68W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 71W.
AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING SW TO WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST W PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N51W EXTENDING
SW TO 28N59W. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FURTHER E IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W SW ALONG 23N46W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N37W SSW
ALONG 25N36W TO 15N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 28N31W TO
BEYOND 32N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE N OF THIS FRONT TO THE BAHAMAS AND 80W. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...SHORTWAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 25N FROM 32W-43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY BROAD RIDGE FROM AN MID/UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
BRAZIL THAT EXTENDS NW OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITH
ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE E ATLC...MID/UPPER LOW
REMAINS 700 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N28W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR THE BORDER OF MOROCCO AND THE WESTERN SAHARA. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W S TO
23N26W.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net