[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN 20 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 4N10W 2N20W 3N35W EQ50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
10W-16W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
EQ-2N BETWEEN 49W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W.  BROAD SE/S
RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING WARM
TEMPERATURES.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 90W-95W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.  A BAND OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH A 100-110 KT EMBEDDED JETSTREAM IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA.  THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THRU WED AS AN E/W ORIENTED RIDGE SETS UP FROM S FLORIDA
TO S TEXAS BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED
NIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...FORMING ALONG THE N GULF COAST AS EARLY
AS TUE EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WATERS IS BUILDING TO
THE S AND INCREASING THE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE
CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  WAVES OF
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO
THE NE CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING HEAVIER CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 20N58W TO 18N66W.  A FAIRLY SIZEABLE AREA OF
SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING W WITH THE TRADES ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS AND ADJACENT VENEZUELAN
ISLANDS.  ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND THUS
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ZONAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 23N50W DISSIPATING
TO 20N58W TO NEAR PUERTO RICA AT 18N66W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT TO 34W AND N OF 28N.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO
67W.  THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING WITH AXIS
FROM 32N25W TO 18N35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 5N50W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N AND W OF 32W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 32W.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W AND N OF 5N.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 33N28W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 17W-25W.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND REACH THE CANARY ISLANDS BY WED.

$$
FORMOSA


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