[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN 20 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N11W 1N30W 4S50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 16W-25W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 40W INLAND
NE BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY BROAD...QUASI-ZONAL...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS
N HALF OF BASIN.  SLIGHT TROUGHINESS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SRN HALF.  TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED BY 95 KT JETSTREAM OVER
MEXICO N OF LINE FROM 25N97W TO 30N84W WHILE REST OF GULF
REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER SUBSIDENCE WHICH
MAINTAINS VERY DRY CONDITIONS.  LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24
HRS AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER
1030 MB NE OF GULF MAINTAIN E TO SE FLOW WHICH IS BOUND TO
DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS AS RIDGE CENTER WEAKENS AND MOVES
E.  POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN RETURN
FLOW OVER EXTREME WRN GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER SW N ATLC MAINTAINS TIGHT GRADIENT OVER
BASIN WITH STRONGER E TRADES...APPROACHING 30 KT...ALONG
COLOMBIAN COAST.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER CARIBBEAN AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MERGES WITH RIDGE OVER GUYANA.  GENERALLY DRY AIR
OVER BASIN AND TROPICAL ATLC EWD.  WIND EXPECTED TO ABATE AFTER
48 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER ATLC MOVES E.

ATLC...
LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING NE OVER SW N ATLC WATERS WITH WEAKENING 125 KT JET
CORE.  IN ADDITION TO DECREASING INTENSITY TROUGH NE MOVE SHOULD
KEEP EFFECTS N OF AREA.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 31N45W TO 25N65W DISCONNECT FROM ENERGY SOURCE AND SHOULD
LOSE IDENTITY QUITE RAPIDLY...JUST AS SURFACE LOW PRES
DISSIPATED.  DRY CONDITIONS REPLACE COLD FRONT BUT WIND AND SEAS
REMAIN IMPACTED BY BROAD RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER E ATLC AND NW AFRICA MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 33N31W THROUGH 35N AND
PRIME MERIDIAN AND BEYOND.  ITCZ CONVECTION REMAIN CENTERED JUST
N OF EQUATOR OVER E ATLC AND NEAR BRAZILIAN COAST.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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