[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 192324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 19 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N7W 2N20W 1N30W 3S45W 2S50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
5W-15W INCLUDING OVER PARTS OF IVORY COAST...SE GUINEA...AND E
LIBERIA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
22W-40W HAS BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HRS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS SLIDING EWD ALONG THE U.S.
GULF COAST NEAR ALBANY GA WITH BRISK ELY FLOW MOVING ACROSS FL
INTO THE E GULF...THEN AS SELY FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS SE TX.
UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE/PRECIP IS RIDING NWD OVER CONUS ALONG THE NRN
STREAM OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE OTHER PART OF THE FLOW CUTS S
TO AN UPPER TROF STRETCHING S OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THUS
MOST OF THE GULF IS COVERED BY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. A WEAK
1016 MB LOW APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ABOUT 80 NM W OF
BROWNSVILLE TX ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THE NLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER
EXTREME NE MEXICO BANKED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRES. ELSEWHERE...A
FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN THE SLY RETURN
FLOW BUT THEY DON'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. A SFC RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MON AFTERNOON FROM S FL TO
S TX PRODUCING RELAXED WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH A POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GULF COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AREAS
NEAREST THE COAST BETWEEN TX AND THE FL PANHANDLE MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MOVE THRU THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT BEGINNING SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG HIGH PRES NEAR N FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A TIGHT GRADIENT
AND STRONGER ELY TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH WINDS
AS HIGH AS 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WRN PART OF THE BASIN JUST UPSTREAM OF A
CONFLUENT RIDGE AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM NE VENEZUELA TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS ALSO DRAWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS NWD
OUT OF S AMERICA BUT GENERALLY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH AN OCCASIONAL PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWER. BRISK
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SFC RIDGE
SETS UP N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WITH A POSSIBLE
RESPITE BEGINNING THU OR FRI AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE E. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
MON...SAGGING SWD TO THE ABC ISLANDS AND N COAST OF S AMERICA
TUE THRU FRI.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF IS PUSHING EWD OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS WITH AN ATTENDANT 130 KT JET COMING TO REST ALONG 30N
JUST TO THE S OF BERMUDA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
PROPAGATING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE JET AND EXTENDS ALONG 32N48W
24N60W 22N70W 23N79W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO 90 NM
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT LIES
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NW OF THE FIRST FRONT ALONG 32N53W 28N60W
26N66W WITH COLD AIR STRATOCU BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. A SFC TROF EXTENDS ABOUT 700 NM E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 13N54W 18N48W 24N44W BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS TOO ZONAL TO
PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS/PRECIP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A
WEAK LOW MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 28N43W AT THE N END OF THE TROF BUT
SHIP OBS AND QUIKSCAT HAVE NOT VERIFIED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
AT THE SFC. AN UPPER TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLC WATERS
ABOUT 450 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 31W AND THE
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS PRODUCING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 13N
E OF 29W STREAMING TOWARDS NW AFRICA. A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE W/CNTRL ATLC COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS AND WILL MOVING E OF 40W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS BY
MID-WEEK. ITCZ CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED BETWEEN 25W-45W
NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THRU WED BEFORE THE TROF
DISSIPATES AND THE TSTM CLUSTERS BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE W.

$$
BERG



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