[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 17 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 35N98W.  A
COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM N
FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N80W 27N90W 25N100W.  THE FRONT IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  SE FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED S OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG WESTERLY JET IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND W ATLANTIC AND CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 33N100W TO 33N88W TO 33N70W.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG THE JET ARE IN THE 110-125 KT
RANGE. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE
EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THE SW
CARIBBEAN HAS NE-E SURFACE FLOW AND HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG HE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 10N75W 20N87W.  THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...E OF 70W
...HAS WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW.  THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N60W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 23N53W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 20N60W.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 55W FROM ABOUT 12N
TO BEYOND 32N WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR
27N55W...MOVING E ABOUT 20 KT.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF
40W AND N OF 15N PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST IS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN
10W-28W TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N E OF 40W.  A SMALL
ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N19W. THE
CIRCULATION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A 100-120 KT WESTERLY JET IS
LOCATED FROM 27N40W TO 27N1W.  OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE JET.

$$
FORMOSA



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