[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 16 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 3N20W 1N30W INTO S AMERICA NEAR
1N50W.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ALONG
THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH UPSTREAM PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO
THE SW UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT PREVAILS CAPPING SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS/CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH RESULTING RETURN FLOW OVER THE
W GULF PRODUCING PATCHY SEA FOG NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.  THE RIDGE
IS RETREATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT IS PRIMARILY DRY
AND SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE SURGE
OF CONTINENTAL AIR WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20
KNOTS.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA INTO S MEXICO.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BROAD/FLAT TROUGH CREATING MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW E OF JAMAICA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO
SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS WITHIN SEVERAL POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS NOTED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING FROM A CENTRAL ATLC
TROUGH INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN.  ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS
LOCATED SE OF JAMAICA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 72W-78W.  NLY FLOW IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF W
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA EXTENDING OUTWARD 60 NM FROM THE COAST.
FINALLY...AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC...
THE BULK OF THE ATLC WATERS FEATURES A FLAT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW.  A BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET CUTS ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 10N-30N PRODUCING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN
60-110 KT.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY HALFWAY IN BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE SE UNITED STATES COAST OR N OF 31N BETWEEN
70W-73W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EWD TOWARD
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOMINATES FROM BERMUDA SW OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND
S FLORIDA.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 31N32W EXTENDING SW TO 25N40W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 20N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM POLEWARD OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT PRIMARILY BETWEEN 45W-55W.  THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS PRODUCING INCREASING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS EAST
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20N-30N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  OVER THE E ATLC...A
ZONALLY ELONGATED DEEP LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED NW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS MINIMAL AS
IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  FURTHER S...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
STILL SHOWS AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST WITH VISIBILITY POSSIBLY
RESTRICTED BELOW 5 MILES S AND E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
THE ITCZ.  OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC...THE ITCZ HAS SHIFTED
WELL S ESSENTIALLY STRADDLING THE EQUATOR W OF 20W.  ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE AXIS.

$$
RHOME



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