[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 16 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N14W 2N32W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. WITH THE ITCZ
HAVING SUCH A SOUTHERN POSITION...THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 1N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 95W WITH S TO SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. FOG AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF MOST OF GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT
MYERS TO OVER MEXICO JUST N OF VERA CRUZ. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING FROM OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES
AND THE N GULF N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED
BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT HELPING TO PRODUCE THE
FAIR SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL STALL FROM THE FL STRAITS
TO THE NW GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING...ULTIMATELY BRINGING ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA...THUS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT IS LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 70W-79W. SIMILAR
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
20N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC...
W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT BRIDGES OVER INTO THE
E GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N72W. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...WNW FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 55W. FARTHER
E...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA AND IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING E FROM 32N42W TO 25N34W. THIS SHORTWAVE
IS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TO THE E ALONG 32N36W ALONG
27N39W TO 23N51W WHERE A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 20N58W
AT 16/0900 UTC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATING NEAR
GUADELOUPE. WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED E OF THE FRONT NEAR
22N35W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N
AND W OF THE FRONT TO 65W. OVER THE E ATLC...DEEP-LAYERED LOW
REMAINS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N24W AND A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N25W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N21W
TO 24N28W. THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS BECOME ELONGATED E
TO W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 30N18W TO BEYOND 32N25W. A NARROW SWATH OF AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO BE WRAPPED INTO THE E SIDE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SAHARA N ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST CANARY
ISLANDS THEN TO MADEIRA ISLAND. FARTHER S...STRONG N/NE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ AND ALL ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATOR AND FURTHER S...ALTHOUGH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS E IN A BAND
BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 10N.

$$
WALLACE


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