[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 13 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N0 5N10W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SW GHANA AND SRN IVORY COAST
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 2W-7W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 9W-28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS UP TO 120 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED ABOUT 150 NM W OF TAMPA BAY FL
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
POISED TO MOVE TO THE W ATLC WATERS AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER HIGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE
HIGH IS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER FL THIS
EVENING BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN SINCE LAST NIGHT SO LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS CHILLY. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 88W INTO THE MS/TN VALLEYS WITH HIGH
CLOUDS GENERALLY N OF 26N...WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE LOW TEMPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST A LITTLE WARMER. SELY RETURN FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE W GULF AND THE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS IS
PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS.
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SPAWN A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST SUN EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PRECEDE THE BOUNDARY...MOVING OFF THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS THRU MON EVENING.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA NWWD OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE ENTIRE AREA IS DOMINATED BY DRY
AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE ONLY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA IS LIMITED WELL TO THE S NEAR THE
EQUATOR OVER S COLOMBIA ALTHOUGH A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE EXTENDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT IS BARELY CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N63W 16N70W AND SAN JUAN RADAR
INDICATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. A SFC TROF ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 11N65W 15N61W 22N58W WITH LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 57W-65W. A FEW TSTM CELLS ARE LOCATED AT THE N END OF
THE TROF OVER THE ATLC WATERS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS
CENTERED ALONG 62W AND IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM 32N53W 23N60W TO PUERTO RICO...AND A SECONDARY
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ALONG 32N56W 27N60W 24N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM E OF THE FIRST FRONT N OF 27N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE UP TO 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 19N-27N. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTS
IS PRODUCING A FEW STRATOCU PATCHES OVER THE W ATLC BUT THERE
HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE CLEARING SINCE LAST NIGHT. FARTHER E...A
STRONG 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 32N37W 24N52W AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL REGION. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NW
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W WITH THE ASSOCIATED DIGGING
TROF EXTENDING SW TO 16N40W. THIS IN TURN IS BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER W AFRICA WITH A 130 KT JET STREAK RIDGING UP THE
COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA AT 250 MB. THE JET IS ADVECTING A LARGE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO MOROCCO AND THE CANARY ISLANDS BUT TRMM IMAGERY DOES
NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BENEATH THIS CANOPY. A SFC
TROF HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 21N15W TO 30N14W
WITH LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY THE LARGE DUST/SAND PLUME WHICH
MOVED OFF THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS PROPAGATING TO THE SW AND
EXTENDS FROM 16N-30N E OF ABOUT 35W. THE HAZY SKIES HAVE NOW
SPREAD OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH SAL REPORTING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ABOUT 3 MILES.

$$
BERG


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