[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 10 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 1N20W EQ30W 2S50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 13W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N97W.  A
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
PRESENTLY FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 27N80W
23N90W 20N97W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NW OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO ALONG 22N100W 25N100W 27N103W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONTS. 20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A GRADUAL 15 DEGREE COOLING ARE NORTH OF THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO APPROACHING.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 23N WITH AN EMBEDDED 100-120 KT JET STREAM.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SOUTH OF 23N.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO
CLEAR THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE W ATLANTIC BY LATE
SAT.  UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK QUITE LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COLD NIGHTS APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR FLORIDA WITH W TO NW FLOW
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/ISOLATED
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST BY SAT WITH A WEAK
FRONT LIKELY TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DECAYING TROUGH LINGERS FROM THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
NE VENEZUELA ALONG 15N60W 11N70W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. HEAVIER
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA WHERE
FLOODING IS REPORTED.  ELSEWHERE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N84W.
BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT WITH
DRIER AIR AND SHOWERS BEHIND IT... IMPACTING HISPANIOLA ON SAT
AND BRINGING WET WEATHER TO PUERTO RICO PROBABLY ON SUN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO S
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W MOVING E.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT.  A 1016 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N60W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
33N45W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 30N44W 20N50W 14N60W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 41W-45W.  A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 40W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
50W-80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N44W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  A
NARROW RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W WITH AXIS ALONG 35W.  A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N17W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN
30W-60W...AND FROM EQ-10N E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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