[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 04 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N35W 3N45W 2N52W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 30W-42W AND FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME DOMINATES N AMERICA WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET FROM THE EPAC THRU CENTRAL MEXICO INTO S TEXAS.  SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY... THIS JET IS SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE EXTREME SE GULF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER S
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF....SKIES ARE
NEARLY OVERCAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FRONT IS
STATIONARY NEAR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WATER.  NEARLY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS
ALONG ABOUT 92W.  THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD REMAIN A POTENT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WITH MEAN TROUGH SITTING
OVER NW MEXICO.. FUNNELING MID/UPPER MOISTURE FROM DISTANT TSTMS
IN THE EPAC INTO THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A 1032 MB HIGH OVER ARKANSAS BUILDS A
LITTLE SOUTHWARD.  THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.. BRINGING WARM/MOIST SLY FLOW OVER SE TEXAS BY SUN
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL
REACH THE NW GULF WED.

CARIBBEAN...
THE WEATHER IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS WITH DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT
FROM A BROAD NW ATLC TROUGH CONTROLLING THE REGION.  TRADEWIND
SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  DRY AIR
EVEN NOSES INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
AT TIMES IN PUERTO RICO.  SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA AS THE DEEP CUTOFF
LOW E OF BERMUDA PULLS OUT OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW
SHOULD FORM IN THE W ATLC IN ITS PLACE... LIKELY SENDING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LARGE SWELLS FOR NEXT WEEK... AS WELL AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT THRU PUERTO RICO LATE SUN.  NEAR-RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN PUERTO RICO WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST.
THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
RAIN LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG 992 MB DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA NEAR
32N57W ABOUT 425 NM E OF BERMUDA.  THIS LOW IS STILL SPREADING
GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
LATER TODAY AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHWARD.  A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS ON THE LOW'S E SIDE FROM 31N47W TO 16N57W
WITH DIVERGENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 21N BETWEEN
41W-51W.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDINESS COVERS THE ATLC W OF THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ANOTHER LOW IS TAKING SHAPE MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NE
FLORIDA... 1008 MB.. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST E OF
MIAMI.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY
FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM DIGS SOUTHWARD.  THE
LOW SHOULD CUTOFF SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS LOW BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.  NEVERTHELESS LARGE SWELLS AND WINDS
TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW.  THE UPPER FLOW IN THE
W ATLC HAS BRIEFLY TURNING A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH TROUGHING
CONFINED TO N OF 26N WITH AXIS ALONG 72W.  HUGE UPPER RIDGING
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH DIVERGENCE CAUSING PLENTY OF ITCZ
CONVECTION W OF 25W.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG FROM EQ30W TO 6N67W
WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM CIRRUS DEBRIS OVERSPREADING THE TROPICAL
ATLC W OF 16N.  UPPER TROUGH LIES IN THE FAR NE ATLC ALONG THE
CANARY ISLANDS INTO NW SAHARA WITH LITTLE SURFACE WEATHER
IMPACTS.   PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST/DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN
THE E ATLC N OF THE ITCZ E OF A LINE FROM 5N35W THRU THE NW CAPE
VERDES TO THE SE CANARY ISLANDS... INHIBITING ALMOST ALL LOW/
MIDDLE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER.  ZONAL FLOW IS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 10N-20N...ACCELERATING A BIT IN THE E ATLC
BETWEEN THE E ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP TROPICAL ATLC RIDGE.

$$
BLAKE


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