[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 02 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N19W 1N43W INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 2N48W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 21W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIGRATING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GULF WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING
THE SE UNITED STATES FROM THE FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF NEAR
28N87W NW TO A 1012 MB LOW S OF THE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR 19N96W THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING NE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N OF THE REGION. AREAS OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NOW CONFINED TO N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA TO LOUISIANA JUST W OF NEW
ORLEANS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
COLD FRONT AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA N OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRIMARILY NW/W WITH VIRTUALLY ALL
MOISTURE STREAMING N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY DRY AND THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A BAND IS S OF
13N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND E COLOMBIA BETWEEN 61W-73W. A
SECOND AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. THE USUAL AREA OF OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N W OF 80W TO INLAND ARE
BANKING UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF S NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND
W PANAMA.

ATLANTIC WEST OF 45W...
A 996 MB DEVELOPING STORM CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
ALONG 32N57W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 29N53W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SW ALONG 23N53W TO THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N74W AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT SE TO 25N45W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD IS PLUMMETING FROM THE W ATLC WATERS S TO THE E OF THE
BAHAMAS AND BRINGING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF THE ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 26N43W TO BEYOND 32N50W. A MID/UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC W OF 35W WHICH IS PRODUCING NW/W
FLOW WITH A 110 KT JET GOING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO 27N60W.
HOWEVER...A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REACHES
INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N62W-24N47W AND IS THE CAUSE FOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND PRECIPITATION FIELD FANNING
OUT TO THE NE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND DEEPEN WITH BOTH THE WIND FIELD AND
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 45W...
A SECOND NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITHIN THE
MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH...IS LOCATED FARTHER E ALONG 32N39W
20N35W AND IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
27N39W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 18N41W WHILE A
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE TO BEYOND 32N37W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE LOW/FRONT PRIMARILY N OF 22N FROM 31W-35W
AND N OF 27N FROM 35W41W. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AND WILL MOVE N OUT OF THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER W ATLC LOW. ELSEWHERE...DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING EXTENDS E OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 20W WITH A BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD MOVING SW OF MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS AND
FEEDING INTO THE CNTRL ATLC LOW/FRONT. THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
MID/UPPER LOW OVER W AFRICA BUT IS STILL IS PRODUCING LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA W OF 20W. THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS IS COMPLETELY ZONAL WITH 70 TO 80 KT
WINDS EXTENDING E OF 60W BETWEEN 12N-20N AND THERE IS NO UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ITCZ CONVECTION EXCEPT S OF 5N.
ANOTHER PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR HAS ALSO MOVED OFF THE
COAST AND REACHED AS FAR W AS 30W...INHIBITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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