[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 312030
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ZETA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
DURING THE DAY...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION.  T NUMBERS WERE DOWN FROM ALL
AGENCIES AT 18Z...AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NUDGED
DOWNWARD TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
ZETA DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING
THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST.

ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE
CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT
POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 25.7N  38.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 25.7N  38.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.7N  39.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 25.7N  40.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.0N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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