[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 3N40W EQ50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N33W AND 2N11.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER S FLORIDA COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION.  INCREASING S TO SW FLOW IS BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 26N W OF 88W WITH SIMILAR LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE SE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.  MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT SPARKING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITH PERHAPS A TSTM OVER THE NE GULF LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RELATED UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO NE
MEXICO WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ELSEWHERE.  COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY SUNRISE
BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL BE IN THE NE PART OF
THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT ELY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE NW OF COLOMBIA.
CONVERGENCE ON THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATED END OF A FRONT IS
PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.  UPPER RIDGING OVER NORTHERN S
AMERICA DOMINATES THE REGION WITH GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT E OF 80W... DRYING FROM W TO E.  NO BIG CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SHOULD DRY OUT A LITTLE AS ANY
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO JUST N OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27 WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
22N.  COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 77W.  LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING THE PUSH FOR THE FRONT
THOUGH IT IS WEAKENING.  1033 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA NEAR THE
AZORES WITH STRONGER TRADES THAN AVERAGE IN THE E ATLC E OF
50W.  THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO BE RATHER QUIET W OF 40W
BUT THAT CHANGES E OF 40W AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N38W IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS.  OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE E OF 37W TO W AFRICA
BETWEEN 8N-22N WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF
17N33W.  MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.. POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION.  OTHERWISE THE ITCZ IS FAR TO THE SOUTH IN
THE REGION.. ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  UPPER RIDGING
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND E OF
THE UPPER LOW.  WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR NE PART OF THE
REGION NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS PRODUCING SOME RAIN.

$$
BLAKE

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