[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0615 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N20W 4N32W 1.5N49W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE BORDER GA/FL
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WARMING SE SURFACE FLOW...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. HOWEVER...THE E COAST OF FLORIDA IS
STILL GETTING A COOL NORTHERLY WIND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF...THEN
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  WEST/SWLY UPPER FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE
U.S. WILL MOVE E IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF TEXAS
COAST SATURDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N60W 25N72W SW TO EASTERN
CUBA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 180 NM
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT
ALSO EXTENDS E FROM 30N60W TO BEYOND 28N46W. THIS ENTIRE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N62W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-80W.  A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS IS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
FROM COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 25N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS SEEN OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ AXIS AND A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74.5W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 60W...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES W TO 30N60W. A WEAK HIGH IS S OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR
24N52W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF THE
EQUATOR W OF 40W.  A TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 7N AND E
OF 40W.  THE TROUGH AXIS TILTS SW FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N14W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND NEAR 16N25W TO A BASE NEAR
7N32W. SW UPPER WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE HELPING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND
BETWEEN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. A TROUGH
LIES ALONG 22-23W SOUTH OF 12N. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS.

$$
GR




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