[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4.5N29W 1N40W 1.5N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A SURFACE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER
LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE...IS BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE SE STATES OF U.S...INCLUDING NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PRODUCING MODERATE
NELY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE CORE WINDS
OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM...MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 120-140 KT...STRETCH FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
33N61W. THE HIGHEST WINDS AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE GULF AREA FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...
MAINLY SOUTH OF 25N. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
31N-56W AND EXTENDS TO 27.5N-70W THEN CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT
TO A LOW LOCATED OVER N BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
FROM THIS LOW ACROSS W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE SE AS A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES W
CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN...WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHY CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NE WINDS WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS N
HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT IS SUPPLYING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
DRY WEATHER ALSO IS ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC WEST OF 50W SOUTH OF 25N. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 31N37W. EAST OF THE HIGH THERE IS AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 17W-20W...ENE
OF THE LOW.  A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 100 KT TO
130 KT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. STRONG DIFFLUENCE...AIDED BY
THE JET...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM THE
TROPICS NEAR 12N30W 23N27W OVER AFRICA NEAR 25N12W INCLUDING THE
CAPE VERDE AND JUST EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR


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