[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N24W 1N45W 2N53W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 33N WITH A SHORTWAVE DIPPING S INTO W TEXAS.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N60W SW
TO A 1017 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W. FRONT IS
BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF
W OF 93W AND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF AND W ATLC WITH SW TO W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT CUTS ACROSS THE GULF
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 19N95W OVER FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W 30N65W TO
BEYOND TO 32N52W. THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE U.S. PUSHING THE FRONT INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE LOW AND FRONT HAVE BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WILL REMAIN SO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING NE BECOMING ENTRAINED IN A LARGER LOW
SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY
CLEARING TO THE GULF WITH WET WEATHER REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING ALL BUT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W...WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS COVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN RELAXING SOMEWHAT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN AN INCREASE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
ACROSS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 52W GIVING THE AREA S OF
25N W OF 50W MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. AT
THE SURFACE...A POCKET OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N
BETWEEN 34W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC WITH A 1024
MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 28N43W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N22W IN THE NE ATLC TO A SECOND
UPPER LOW NEAR 28N23W SW ALONG 18N36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 200/250
NM OF LINE FROM 28N28W TO 20N40W AND FROM 7N-20N W OF 40W...THE
DRIEST AIR BEING FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 40W-60W. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N18W SW TO 22N27W...
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 27N14W...AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL LOW NEAR 33N22W SW TO
25N33W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS N FROM AN
UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N16W TO 34N11W. A
STRONG JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 150 KT IS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 14N37W TO A PEAK NEAR
32N10W. STRONG DIFFLUENCE...AIDED BY THE JET...IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 10N34W 22N23W
OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N13W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net