[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N20W 7N34W 4N50W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 5N-7N AND BETWEEN
22W-27W AND ALSO FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
A FLAT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SE INTO THE
NW ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N73W
PAST THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N-84W...THEN CONTINUES AS STATIONARY
FRONT TO 22.5N-89.5W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO A
1012 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 19N93W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LEAVES THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 26N97W TO 20N95W.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS LOW MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF
100-130 KT ENTERS MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO VALLARTA AND CULIACAN.
THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.  MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A WSW TO WLY FLOW AROUND A
CARIBBEAN UPPER HIGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
DRY AIR...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE EXCEPTION IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO W CUBA...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MODERATE TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT COVER
MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 80W. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA AS THE AFTERNOON WENT BY.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 36N57W. EAST OF THE
SURFACE HIGH THERE IS A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
34N43W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC
N OF 23N E OF 60W. FARTHER EAST...A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 24N23W IS PRODUCING A SMALL CLUSTER OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT A NEW LOW WILL FORM OVER THE E ATLC. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE TROPICS IS
DOMINATED BY A ZONAL WESTERLY JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT
WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 20N35 TO 22N-23W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR
22N16W.

$$
GR



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net