[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N15W 8N45W 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 11W-23W AND FROM 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN N TO OVER THE E
U.S ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF N OF 22N E OF 90W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 26N ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N W
OF 90W. A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY...INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WNW FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER VENEZUELA
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 11N73W TO BEYOND 13N84W. THIS IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY
UPPER AIR...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR S PORTION WHERE THE ITCZ CUTS
ACROSS PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA INTO COSTA RICA.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...BECOMING STRONGER DURING THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 22N FROM 55W-78W. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH.
EASTERN COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N60W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
A SURFACE TROUGH TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N68W. A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS BECOMING THE DOMINATE FEATURE ENTERING THE W ATLC E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N70W TO OVER THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE THE
AREA NW OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER VENEZUELA N ALONG 18N55W TO BEYOND
32N50W COVERING THE AREA FROM 45W-55W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM
23N60W TO BEYOND 32N54W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY S OF 30N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-22N W OF 40W. ELONGATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 25N20W NW TO BEYOND 32N34W. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N42W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 26N42W TO 19N45W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
26N23W TO BEYOND 32N32W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N31W TO 29N34W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.

$$
WALLACE





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