[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N14W 6N30W 3N43W 6N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND
61W...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN PARTS OF SURINAME AND
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N52W 6N51W 7N49W
7N47W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6.5N TO 7.5N
BETWEEN 22W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...WIND SPEEDS OF 80 KT TO 90 KT IN THE
GULF WEST OF 100W...IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WIND SPEED DATA IS
FOUND IN THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 09/1500 UTC.
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE
OPEN GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS BEING PUSHED INTO
MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL U.S.A. LOW CENTER MAY BE THE SUPPORT
FOR THE NEXT FRONT WHICH IS SET TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
30N81W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N84W. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N87W AND 22N90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 21N93W AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N94W. THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW
CENTER IS MARKED BY A ROPE-CLOUD...A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS...WHICH
EASILY IS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE MOST CURRENT IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS LINE ALONG 28N83W 25N86W 23N88W 22N92W 19N93W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.
A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
YESTERDAY'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TRYING TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME CUT OFF
FROM THE REST OF THE FLOW...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND BECOME MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH
ROUGHLY ALONG 74W/75W BETWEEN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND BETWEEN 66W AND EASTERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS IN MANY SECTIONS...
EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. AND
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...WHERE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OR TRYING TO FORM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
AT THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...WHICH RUNS FROM
A 22N34W ATLANTIC LOW CENTER TO 14N43W TO 13N56W TO THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 13N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FASTEST WINDS IN
THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS JET STREAM RANGE FROM 80 KT TO 100 KT NORTH
OF 28N WEST OF 50W ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA FROM 09/1500 UTC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
THE RULE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALSO IS PRESENT WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL CENTER NEAR 25N65W
ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS DERIVED WIND DATA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N42W 26N43W 21N45W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W 29N40W 22N51W. THIS FRONT IS THE
FRONT WHICH WILL ABSORB THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N40W...WHICH IS THE REMNANT LOW OF EPSILON. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THE TROUGH NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...
AND IT IS FOUND ALSO SOUTH OF 29N70W 27N55W 23N36W TO 10N.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N20W TO 22N22W TO
12N36W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH TO
AFRICA.

$$
MT


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