[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N24W 6N43W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-30W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
16W-23W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-50W...AND WITHIN 90
NM OF 9N FROM 32W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW INTO S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ...CONTINUING AS A
STATIONARY FRONT NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N85W ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SYSTEM IS
BENEATH THE BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS
THE GULF AND THE FAR SE U.S. WITH UPPER SW FLOW. SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT OVER THE GULF AND HIGHER WINDS TO THE
N...EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO ENTERING THE
GULF NEAR 23N97W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
GULF NW OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT AND OVER THE E GULF N OF 25N. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. STRONG
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND BE IN THE W ATLC LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CLEARING THE GULF SAT WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE
W GULF BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF UNDER
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS RETROGRADING AND IS NOW CENTERED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N84W...COVERING THE AREA W
OF 78W. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS PUSHED W
EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
15N61W W ALONG 14N73W TO N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. THIS IS GIVING
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DRY AIR WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W
OF 82W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 82W THEN
WEAKENING OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE TYPICAL TROPICAL MOISTURE GIVING THE AREA
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE NE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE NEAR 28N82W INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N73W. HEAVY
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
SE U.S INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W. THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W NE TO
BEYOND 32N73W. A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC
NEAR 32N22W SW INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 19N34W CONTINUING W ALONG
14N51W THEN W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
15N61W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-25N
BETWEEN 35W-80W. THE DRIEST AIR IS FROM OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER
THE NE U.S. SE ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 20N48W AND A
SECOND EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N21W TO 24N34W. BETWEEN
THE RIDGES IS THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON...A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
25N41W.

$$
WALLACE


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