[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EPSILON AT 08/1500 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON
AT 08/1500 UTC IS NEAR 26.4N 40.3W OR ABOUT 970 NM/1795 KM SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISAPPEARED.
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR WHAT REMAINS OF T.D. EPSILON IS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST...IN DRY AIR.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 5N20W 4N25W 6N45W 5N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N
BETWEEN 10W AND 34W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE. A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS CENTER REACHES NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THE FLOW AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER MERGES WITH THE SOME OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE JET STREAM. A COMPARATIVELY
SMALLER-SIZED LOW CENTER IS FORMING ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
23N107W. A WARM FRONT RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA
NEAR 28N81W TO 26N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N86W
TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N91W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W AND 23N100W
INLAND. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N100W TO 28N104W.
A SECOND COLD FRONT...WHICH REPRESENTS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER
AIR AND FASTER WIND SPEEDS IN THE MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 28N95W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST JUST SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 25N97W TO 26N99W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO RUNS FROM THE 1016 MB LOW CENTER TO THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W
AND WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...WHERE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OR TRYING TO FORM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR ALSO COVERS THE AREA. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
AT THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...WHICH RUNS FROM
A 22N34W ATLANTIC LOW CENTER TO 14N43W TO 13N56W TO THE LOW CENTER
NEAR 13N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST
AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FASTEST WINDS WITH
THIS JET STREAM...FROM 110 KT TO 130 KT...APPEAR TO BE OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 08/1200 UTC. COMPARATIVELY SLOWER WIND SPEEDS
OF 40 KT TO 70 KT ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 25N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 90 KT TO 110 KT ARE
FOUND NORTH OF 30N WEST OF 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS JET
STREAM IS WESTERLY. SOME OF THIS WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE AREA
NORTH OF 27N TO 50W. SOME OF IT BREAKS OFF AND BECOMES NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOSING OFF A BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...
THE REMNANT OF THE TROUGH WHICH WAS ON TOP OF EPSILON FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS...PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 22N34W TO
14N43W TO 13N56W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER NEAR
13N68W. AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N60W TO
26N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N65W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS DEFINES THIS FRONT.
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM 15N TO 28N EAST OF 30W ARE BEING PUSHED
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA.
ALL OF THIS IS TAKING PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE 22N34W MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

$$
MT


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