[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 39.6W AT 08/0900 UTC
MOVING SW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVERNIGHT
AND THE CONVECTION HAS IS ALL BUT GONE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-26.5N BETWEEN 38.5W-39W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 6N27W 11N39W THEN ALONG
11N44W 8N53W 10N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N34W SW ALONG
12N41W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 11N FROM
34W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 10W-26W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE 1016 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N94W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO N MEXICO CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
NW ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SECOND
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ALONG 25N88W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE BROAD
UPPER HIGH STILL ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE GULF AND
SE U.S. WITH UPPER SW FLOW. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110
KT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO ENTERING THE GULF
NEAR 25N97W TO OVER THE SE U.S. NEAR 30N84W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
GULF N OF THE LOW/STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT RETREATED N IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO BRIDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. MODERATE SURFACE WINDS
COVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE STRONGER N
WINDS ARE FOUND. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE NE AND BE IN THE W
ATLC BY FRI WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CLEARING THE GULF DURING
THE WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WILL BE SPREADING
OVER THE W GULF TODAY INTO FRIDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF
UNDER UNSETTLED WEATHER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N82W COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W. AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W SW TO INLAND OVER  VENEZUELA NEAR
10N70W. THIS ALL HAS COMBINED TO GIVE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DRY AIR
WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR AND
SHOWER FREE AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE
WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND.
MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 83W THEN
WEAKENING OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADEWIND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE TYPICAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE GIVING THE AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RISE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 27N62W WHERE
IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC AND N BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT
AND OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEYOND 32N W OF 70W. THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N79W N TO BEYOND
32N73W AND NE TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE
ATLC NEAR 32N25W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ENCOMPASSING TROPICAL
STORM EPSILON...ALONG 18N42W THEN W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 26N BETWEEN 40W-80W. THE DRIEST AIR IS
FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 40W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THEN FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 61W-72W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM
OVER THE NE U.S. EXTENDS SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BRIDGING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 44W.
THIS IS GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DUE TO A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS
NEAR 8N23W N TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SECOND JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO
100 KT IS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N35W ALONG 25N21W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA NEAR 23N15W.

$$
WALLACE



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