[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 08/0300 UTC.
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON IS CENTERED NEAR 27.8N 39.2W AT 08/0300 UTC
MOVING SW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NORTHWEST SHEAR HAS FINALLY PUSHED THE
CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N23W 12N40W 10N61W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N47W SW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 36W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10W
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 5W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE 1014 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING WNW ACROSS S TEXAS AND N/CENTRAL MEXICO AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E ALONG 26N89W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC. THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH STILL ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE
GULF AND SE U.S. WITH UPPER SW FLOW. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF
80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 25N97W TO OVER THE SE U.S. NEAR 30N91W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE GULF N OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT AND OVER
THE W GULF W OF 95W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS RETREATED N IN
RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. MODERATE SURFACE WINDS COVER
MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE STRONGER N WINDS ARE
FOUND. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE E AND BE IN THE W ATLC BY
FRI WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CLEARING THE GULF DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF UNDER UNSETTLED WEATHER WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N82W COVERING THE AREA W OF 73W. AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W SW TO INLAND OVER THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. THIS ALL HAS COMBINED TO GIVE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN DRY AIR WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING THE
AREA CLEAR AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER
THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND.
MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 82W THEN
WEAKENING OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADEWIND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE TYPICAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE GIVING THE AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RISE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W CROSSING THE W
ATLC TO NEAR 27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT AND OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT BEYOND 32N. THE UPPER
HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA
NEAR 20N75W NE TO BEYOND 32N46W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE
ATLC NEAR 32N26W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ENCOMPASSING TROPICAL
STORM EPSILON...ALONG 20N43W THEN W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 27N BETWEEN 40W-80W. THE DRIEST AIR IS
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 42W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THEN FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 61W-68W IN THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM OVER THE
NE U.S. EXTENDS SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 45W. THIS IS
GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY BROKEN LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DUE TO A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 8N24W N TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS. A SECOND JET WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N35W ALONG 26N23W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR
25N15W.

$$
WALLACE


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