[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 07/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.1N 37.9W
OR ABOUT 760 NM/1410 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON
FINDS ITSELF IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TOP
OF IT. THIS TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE AREA AROUND EPSILON TO 22N43W
TO 19N58W TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IN COASTAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN
360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N33W 26N42W 22N51W 19N62W...EXCEPT FOR
THE MOISTURE WITH EPSILON. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.
THIS TROUGH HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO WEAKEN EPSILON TO A TROPICAL STORM
YET. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EPSILON WILL WEAKEN FROM ITS HURRICANE
STATUS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR STARTS TO WORK AGAINST EPSILON.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N13W 7N20W 4N30W 5N40W 5N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 7W AND 30W OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL AFRICA FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 1W AND 9W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH...FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 34W AND 40W...IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SHEARING
THE CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N48W 6N50W
3N51W MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO ARE SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE U.S.A. CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO WEST TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO.
A JET STREAM...WITH WINDS REACHING 110 KT FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
85W AND 100W...CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NEAR 18N106W TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 24N98W
AND BEYOND 30N89W AND ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 24N87W. A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N87W TO 23N94W TO 19N94W. THE WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN MAKING ITS GRADUAL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SINCE
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STARTS NEAR THE
AREA OF HURRICANE EPSILON IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE AREA AROUND
EPSILON TO 22N43W TO 19N58W TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING
LOW CENTER IN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N51W 19N62W TO THE
VENEZUELA LOW...AND EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER...WITH A RIDGE CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND
25N72W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W...
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W
AND 88W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N70W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 24N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WESTWARD FROM 24N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N57W 30N62W 28N70W 26N80W
MARKING THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. THE RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA GOES THROUGH 25N72W BEYOND 32N66W. THE TROUGH ON TOP
OF HURRICANE EPSILON CUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 25W FROM THE ITCZ
TO 30N23W.

$$
MT




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