[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 35.3W AT 07/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 615 NM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING SW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON
CONTINUES AGAIN TONIGHT MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OF LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW IS STARTING TO ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE
CENTER FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N26W 7N41W 3N52W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N43W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-9N BETWEEN 38W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N13W-3N20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W WSW ALONG THE N
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO 21N91W S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER
S MEXICO TO NEAR 17N93W. THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH HAS RETREATED N TO OVER THE
NE U.S. AND THE W ATLC. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE GULF N OF
23N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ESTABLISHED FROM TEXAS INTO THE W
ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 1027 MB HIGH ANCHORED OVER N ALABAMA.
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF AND SE
U.S. WITH UPPER WSW FLOW. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO ENTERING THE GULF
NEAR 27N98W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W INTO THE W ATLC BEYOND
32N72W. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF. THE W
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE S
GULF WITH A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK KEEPING THE GULF UNDER UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W
TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N64W. THIS ALL
HAS COMBINED TO GIVE THE CARIBBEAN DRY AIR WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N W OF 81W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS
ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 80W THEN WEAKENING OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADEWIND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE TYPICAL TROPICAL MOISTURE GIVING THE
AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W
CROSSING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W TO ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N84W. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N W OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS
FLORIDA AND E OF THE FRONT N OF LINE 26N75W TO BEYOND 32N61W. THE
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W NE TO BEYOND 32N57W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ENCOMPASSING
HURRICANE EPSILON...THROUGH 33N33W SW ALONG 23N47W INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 30N AND S OF 26N
FROM 60W-80W INCLUDING MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE DRIEST AIR IS
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 53W-61W. ALL OF THIS
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC N OF
20N FROM 42W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N51W...IS GIVING THE AREA FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 8N26W N TO
30N24W. A SECOND JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N55W ALONG 24N28W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
22N17W.

$$
WALLACE


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