[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 06/2100 UTC IS NEAR 31.1N 34.5W
OR ABOUT 640 MILES...1030 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  EPSILON IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO
80 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
EPSILON FINDS ITSELF EMBEDDED IN A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  EYE
DIAMETER IS STILL 30 NM.  A RING OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N20W 7N45W 3N53W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 25W-35W...AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 25N80W 22N90W 17N93W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED E OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE SE PACIFIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO STALL AND RETURN AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
FORM ON THIS FRONT OVER THE W GULF.  EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT AND LOW S OF 27N AND W OF 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W...AND 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 6N-17N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED E OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HAS W
FLOW E OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER NE
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 25N80W MOVING E.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
HURRICANE EPSILON IS FURTHER E PRODUCING CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW N OF
25N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 50W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 10N AND E OF 50W.  EXPECT
CONTINUED ITCZ CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM
2N-10N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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