[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 33.8W AT 06/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 435 NM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING SW AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON AGAIN APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING TONIGHT
AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD TURN IT WILL BE HEADING FOR WARMER
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELONGATED NW OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-36N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N29W 6N44W 3N51W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 43W FROM 3N-12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 7N-11N
AND WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 3N-6N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
4N28W-3N33W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 7N31W-9N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
CAROLINAS ACROSS E GEORGIA AND THE E FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
GULF NEAR 30N84W SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N91W TO OVER
S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER E HALF OF THE U.S. BRINGING SNOW TO THE NE
AND RAIN FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO OVER
TAMPA INTO THE E GULF TO NEAR 28N85W. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM OVER TEXAS INTO
THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W
CARIBBEAN IS COVERING THE GULF WITH UPPER SW FLOW. SUBTROPICAL
JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS BRUSHING THE NW GULF FROM NE
MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA. MODERATE/STRONG N SURFACE WINDS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE GULF BY WED MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF THU INTO FRI
KEEPING THE GULF UNDER UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 71W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W SW TO THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR
12N70W. THIS ALL HAS COMBINED TO GIVE THE CARIBBEAN DRY AIR WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND
SHOWER FREE TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF E PANAMA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF
COLOMBIA. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO
NEAR 80W THEN WEAKENING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADEWINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE TYPICAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE GIVING THE AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT GIVING
THAT AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E U.S. AND THE GULF WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE W ATLC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BE CLEAR OF THE GULF BY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY PRESENT IN
THE W ATLC N OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W NE
TO BEYOND 32N73W. THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W NE TO BEYOND 32N71W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N43W SW ALONG 25N50W
TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N61W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 50W-70W. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC N OF 20N FROM 40W TO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS...WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N56W...IS
GIVING THE AREA FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY BROKEN LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
CLOUDS PRESENT. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM AFRICA TO SOUTH
AMERICA ALONG 10N/12N. A SECOND JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KT
IS ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM NEAR TRINIDAD AROUND THE W
PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE NE ALONG 17N55W 21N45W TO 22N30W.

$$
WALLACE



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