[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON AT 05/2100 UTC...IS NEAR 33.7N 34.4W OR ABOUT
545 MILES...WSW OF THE AZORES. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. EPSILON IS MOVING E 3 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB.  PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  EPSILON IS NOW THE LONGEST-LASTING
HURRICANE OBSERVED IN DECEMBER...3 DAYS.  ONLY A SLOW DEMISE IS
LIKELY DUE TO LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OR SHEAR.
EYE DIAMETER IS NOW 20 NM.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 4N30W 7N40W 3N50W.
WIDELY MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-19W... AND
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N85W 24N94W 20N97W.  THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COASTAL
PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FEW RAIN SHOWERS.  OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED E OF
HONDURAS IS PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SE
PACIFIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUD OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SE AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  THE SEA IS S OF A BROAD 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED E OF BERMUDA.  THUS...15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N
VENEZUELA...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 60W-73W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN
75W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED E OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HAS W FLOW E OF 70W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SEA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER N VENEZUELA...AND THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1025 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N58W PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC.  A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRATOCUMULUS REMAINING.
HURRICANE EPSILON IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC PRODUCING CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW N OF 25N BETWEEN
25W-40W AND FAIR WEATHER S OF 31N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
50W-60W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND E OF 60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N25W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT CONTINUED ITCZ CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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