[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON AT 05/0900 UTC...IS NEAR 33.8N 36.2W OR ABOUT
515 NM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. EPSILON IS MOVING ESE 9 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB.  PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  DESPITE THE COOL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...EPSILON MAINTAINS CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH. DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAD BEEN RAGGED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EARLIER...HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE
SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N19W 7N30W 4N40W 4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W...5N-6N BETWEEN
36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA SW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE GULF INTO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N90W 27N94W
26N101W... MOVING SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W IS PRODUCING
WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE GULF. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS CROSSES NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF U.S. WITH WINDS AROUND 100 KT OVER
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE GULF. THE JET IS ENHANCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PROCEED INTO THE GULF AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NE SURFACE WINDS OF
20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS...EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION...WITH 15-20 KT
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND 10-15 KT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM PUERTO RICO TO JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH
THAT LIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER EL
SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. EXPECT CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1024 MB HIGH IS JUST SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31.5N63W PRODUCING LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER W ATLANTIC. HURRICANE EPSILON
IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW N OF 25N BETWEEN 27W-37W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N
OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 60W.  ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 40W ...WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE ITCZ ENHANCING SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY.

$$
GR



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net