[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON AT 05/0300 UTC...IS NEAR 34.2N 37.3W OR ABOUT
545 NM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. EPSILON IS MOVING E 8 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB.  PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  DESPITE SSTS BETWEEN 70-72F... EPSILON
MAINTAINS CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL
DEPICT A LARGE EYE...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE EYEWALL OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. EPSILON IS WEDGED BETWEEN A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W...HELPING TO
KEEP IT FROM TURNING EXTRATROPICAL.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N19W 5N33W 3N40W 3N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W...4N-5N
BETWEEN 15W-18W...3N-5N BETWEEN 29W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED JUST S OF BERMUDA.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS
WITH FAIR WEATHER S OF 25 AND E OF 90W. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE
TEXAS COAST AND TO NE MEXICO ALONG 27N100W 28.5N103W... MOVING
SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W IS PRODUCING WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IN THE GULF. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS CROSSES
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
U.S. WITH WINDS AROUND 100 KT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF. THE JET IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PROCEED INTO THE GULF AND
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SEA IS S OF A BROAD 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED S OF BERMUDA. THUS...15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND 10-15
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. PATCHES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N
VENEZUELA...OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER EL SALVADOR
NEAR 14N89W. EXPECT CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1025 MB HIGH IS JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W PRODUCING LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER W ATLANTIC. A DYING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N56W TO 24N70W...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  HURRICANE EPSILON IS
JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-42W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N
BETWEEN 60W-70W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 60W.  AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N33W...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ITCZ
ENHANCING SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY.

$$
GR



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