[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON AT 04/2100 UTC...IS NEAR 34.3N 38.0W OR ABOUT
665 MILES...1070 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. EPSILON IS MOVING
E 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  DESPITE SSTS BETWEEN 70-72F...
EPSILON SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINS CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN THE EYEWALL WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE
PERSISTING.  THERE IS...HOWEVER...A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION ON
THE SE SIDE.  EPSILON IS WEDGED BETWEEN A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
TO THE E AND AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W...HELPING TO KEEP IT FROM
TURNING EXTRATROPICAL.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF NE VENEZUELA FROM 34N-36N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 3N40W 3N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 15W-18W...3N-6N
BETWEEN 21W-24W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 35W-38W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED JUST SW OF BERMUDA.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS
WITH FAIR WEATHER.  A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR
32N93W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE TEXAS COAST AND TO NE
MEXICO ALONG 27N98W 28N102W...MOVING SE.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N-31N
BETWEEN 89W-93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS IS PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SE PACIFIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE NW GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PROCEED INTO THE GULF AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  THE SEA IS S OF A BROAD 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA.  THUS...15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N
VENEZUELA...OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
65W-73W...AND OVER THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
80W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HAS W FLOW E OF 70W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SEA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND N VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1024 MB HIGH IS JUST SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W PRODUCING LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER W ATLANTIC.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
NO CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 25N60W.  HURRICANE EPSILON
IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-45W AND FAIR WEATHER
S OF 31N.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
34N5W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 50W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
5N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT
AN INCREASE OF ITCZ CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ESPECIALLY FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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