[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 34.3N
43.6W OR ABOUT 745 NM WEST OF THE AZORES.  EPSILON IS MOVING E
11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.  THE HURRICANE IS DISPLAYING A 20
NM EYE AND WEAKER CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. EPSILON WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN 41W-43W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N19W 4N40W 5N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 19W-29W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
30W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A
10-20 KT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER HONDURAS IS
PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF BETWEEN TEXAS AND N
FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW.
A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSSES NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
WINDS UP TO 100 KT.  A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SHOULD BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTHERN U.S.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT BLOW OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...AND 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  SIGNIFICANT PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER JAMAICA AND PORTIONS
OF HAITI. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA. MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. NW-N UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS W OF 70W.
EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 34N74W PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER OVER W ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N56W TO 25N65W INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS 24N75W. A LINE OF SHOWERS
IS FROM 24N65W TO 23N74W. CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS AREA FOUND
BETWEEN THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND HURRICANE EPSILON...THAT IS JUST
N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR COVERS THE REGION N OF 18 BETWEEN
32W-60W.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A RIDGE
IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
GR



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net